{"id":6445,"date":"2026-06-04T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-04T10:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sandpointrealtyidaho.com\/blog\/2026\/06\/04\/what-rising-inflation-means-for-your-move\/"},"modified":"2026-06-04T10:30:00","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T10:30:00","slug":"what-rising-inflation-means-for-your-move","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sandpointrealtyidaho.com\/blog\/2026\/06\/04\/what-rising-inflation-means-for-your-move\/","title":{"rendered":"What Rising Inflation Means for Your Move"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"What\n

Data shows inflation is moving in the wrong direction. But before the headlines send anyone into a panic, here\u2019s what\u2019s actually going on, why it matters for the housing market, and what it means if you\u2019re thinking about buying or selling.<\/p>\n

Inflation Went Up \u2013 Here\u2019s What That Actually Means<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The government tracks inflation in a variety of ways. One is something called PCE<\/a> \u2013 the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. It measures how much more (or less) people are paying for goods and services compared to a year ago. And just based on your own expenses, you can probably guess which way that\u2019s trending.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the one everyone is talking about right now. Check out the yellow line to see how that\u2019s spiked since February (see graph below<\/em>). A big driver of this jump is the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has pushed gas and energy prices significantly higher.<\/p>\n

\"a<\/p>\n

Now, you may have noticed there\u2019s a second line. The blue line shows core PCE. That\u2019s the same measure, but with gas and energy prices stripped out. The Federal Reserve<\/em> (the Fed) actually watches this number most closely because energy prices swing around a lot and can be misleading.<\/p>\n

And here\u2019s the somewhat encouraging part.<\/p>\n

Core PCE is rising, but not nearly as fast as the overall number. <\/strong>That suggests a good chunk of the inflation spike we\u2019re seeing right now is tied directly to what\u2019s happening overseas. So, when that situation settles down, inflation may settle a bit, too.<\/p>\n

Why This Matters for Mortgage Rates<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Here\u2019s the housing connection. When inflation is high, the Fed tends to keep the Federal Funds Rate elevated or even raise it to try to taper spending and cool inflation back down. And while it\u2019s not a one-for-one relationship, that Federal Funds Rate can have an impact on your mortgage rate when you buy.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Right now, based on the information we have, there\u2019s roughly a 50\/50<\/a> chance the Fed actually raises the Federal Funds Rate before the end of 2026, according to CME FedWatch<\/em> (see graph below<\/em>):<\/p>\n

\"a<\/p>\n

While it\u2019s too soon to say where this goes for certain and if we\u2019re headed for a rate hike, it does mean mortgage rates are probably not coming down as soon as most people were hoping.<\/p>\n

If you\u2019ve been waiting for rates to drop significantly before making a move, this report is a reminder that \u201chigher for longer\u201d is still very much on the table. It really all depends on where the economy goes from here. According to Bankrate<\/em>:<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cOil prices and bond yields have dropped a bit . . . but they\u2019re still way up compared to the start of spring. <\/em>Until there\u2019s a resolution to the war, look for both inflation and mortgage rates to stay high.<\/em><\/strong>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

But This Is Not 2008 \u2013 Not Even Close<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Just remember, a tough economy does not equal a housing crash. The conditions today are very different from what led to the 2008 collapse. Here\u2019s why:<\/p>\n